---
references:
- id: DawesClinical1989
  accessed:
    - year: 2021
      month: 9
      day: 9
  archive_location: world
  author:
    - family: Dawes
      given: Robyn M.
    - family: Faust
      given: David
    - family: Meehl
      given: Paul E.
  citation-key: DawesClinical1989
  container-title: Science
  DOI: 10.1126/science.2648573
  issued:
    - year: 1989
      month: 3
      day: 31
  language: EN
  publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science
  title: Clinical Versus Actuarial Judgment
  type: article-journal
  URL: >-
    https://meehl.umn.edu/sites/meehl.umn.edu/files/files/138cstixdawesfaustmeehl.pdf

- id: FreedmanWhat2009
  accessed:
    - year: 2021
      month: 9
      day: 27
  author:
    - family: Freedman
      given: David A.
    - family: Stark
      given: Philip B
  citation-key: FreedmanWhat2009
  container-title: 'Statistical Models and Causal Inference: A Dialogue with the Social Sciences'
  DOI: 10.1017/CBO9780511815874
  editor:
    - family: Collier
      given: David
    - family: Sekhon
      given: Jasjeet S.
    - family: Stark
      given: Philip B.
  event-place: Cambridge
  ISBN: 978-0-511-81587-4
  issued:
    - year: 2009
  language: en
  publisher: Cambridge University Press
  publisher-place: Cambridge
  title: What Is the Chance of an Earthquake?
  type: chapter
  URL: http://ebooks.cambridge.org/ref/id/CBO9780511815874

- id: SmithParachute2003
  accessed:
    - year: 2020
      month: 4
      day: 23
  author:
    - family: Smith
      given: Gordon C. S.
    - family: Pell
      given: Jill P.
  citation-key: SmithParachute2003
  container-title: BMJ
  container-title-short: BMJ
  DOI: 10.1136/bmj.327.7429.1459
  ISSN: 0959-8138, 1468-5833
  issue: '7429'
  issued:
    - year: 2003
      month: 12
      day: 18
  language: en
  page: 1459-1461
  PMID: '14684649'
  publisher: British Medical Journal Publishing Group
  section: Hazardous journeys
  title: >-
    Parachute use to prevent death and major trauma related to gravitational
    challenge: systematic review of randomised controlled trials
  type: article-journal
  volume: '327'

- id: TalebBlack2007
  author:
    - family: Taleb
      given: Nassim Nicholas
  citation-key: TalebBlack2007
  container-title: The American Statistician
  DOI: 10.1198/000313007X219996
  issue: '3'
  issued:
    - year: 2007
  page: 198-200
  title: Black Swans and the Domains of Statistics
  type: article-journal
  volume: '61'

- id: TalebStatistical2020
  accessed:
    - year: 2020
      month: 6
      day: 22
  author:
    - family: Taleb
      given: Nassim Nicholas
  citation-key: TalebStatistical2020
  container-title: International Journal of Forecasting
  container-title-short: International Journal of Forecasting
  DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.12.004
  ISSN: 0169-2070
  issued:
    - year: 2020
      month: 4
      day: 9
  language: en
  title: >-
    On the statistical differences between binary forecasts and real-world
    payoffs
  type: article-journal
  URL: http://arxiv.org/abs/1907.11162
...
