AI evals
Psychometrics for robots
2025-12-09 — 2026-08-31
Wherein Static Benchmarks Are Distinguished From Operational Evals, the Lack of Rigorous Statistical Design in ML Is Lamented, and Psychometric Item Response Theory Is Proposed to Detect Training-Data Leakage.
A cousin of ML benchmarks.
At the Evaluating evals workshop at NeurIPS 2024, I decided I needed to understand the distinction between “benchmarks” and “evals” in ML/AI.
Benchmarks are standardized tests used to compare AI models on common tasks, while evals, as far as I can tell, are broader, often custom, evaluations used to judge whether a model is fit for a particular use case or deployment context.
That is to say, benchmarks in ML/AI are fixed datasets and protocols meant to provide “apples-to-apples” scores across models or model variants (e.g., MMLU, GSM8K, TruthfulQA for LLMs). They emphasize comparability and repeatability: same inputs, same metrics, so we can rank or track progress over time and publish leaderboards or marketing claims like “X% on benchmark Y.” Conceptually, benchmarks mostly answer “What can this model do in general, relative to others?” rather than “Is it good enough for my specific workflow?”
“Evals” (evaluations) are a broader category that focuses on how a system performs for a concrete task, product, or risk profile. In contemporary LLM practice, evals are often application-specific suites (e.g., for a customer-support bot, legal RAG system, or internal agent) that may mix automated metrics, human judgements, and logs from real users. They tend to be iterative and operational, used for error analysis, regression testing, safety checks, and release gating, rather than just for external comparison.
Benchmarks are typically public, static, and model-centric, while evals are often private, dynamic, and product- or context-centric (e.g., built from our own user data and goals). In practice, there is overlap—internal eval suites can double as “benchmarks” for marketing, and published benchmarks can be part of an eval pipeline—but the intent differs: comparison versus decision-making for a specific deployment.
More recently, a school of evals called EvalEval has arisen. EvalEval is a research coalition focused on meta-evaluation: understanding how benchmarks behave over time, how to design better evaluations, and how to document and standardize them (e.g., “evaluation cards,” harness tutorials). Their “evals” are not ad hoc; they are systematically designed, documented, and scientifically grounded studies of AI systems’ capabilities, risks, and broader societal impacts. They claim to be more like classical science than the benchmark world science: their approach treats AI models and their evaluations as observable phenomena that we can study in their own right, and which we analyze via RCTs, standard experimental methods, and statistical techniques, as I learned at NeurIPS 2025.
EvalEval also explicitly targets “broader impact evaluations” and decision-makers, meaning assessments of downstream risks, opportunities, and externalities, not just accuracy or utility for a single product. That adds a policy and governance dimension that goes beyond the earlier framing of evals as primarily for model and feature decisions within a single organization.
I am happy with this framing.
1 Statistical methods for evaluating AI systems
Historically, we’ve done this remarkably poorly. Many published works notoriously ignore construct validity, randomized controlled trials, statistical power, multiple comparisons, and other basic tenets of experimental design and analysis. Many have written on this theme; see e.g. (Biderman et al. 2024; Eriksson et al. 2025; Gevers et al. 2025; Salaudeen et al. 2025).
- BetterBench | Assessing AI Benchmarks, Uncovering Issues, and Establishing Best Practices (Reuel et al. 2024)
- mo-arvan/chatbot-arena-analysis
1.1 Evals as designed experiments
Survey modelling tells us to control for the way questions are sampled, the clustering of questions, and the assignment of questions to respondents, ordering etc. Insofar as asking LLMs things is just another form of survey, the same principles apply, and all the delicious survey statistical methods apply. A power calculation beforehand can say how many questions are needed to detect an effect worth detecting, and we can estimate significances, credible sets, variances (Bouthillier et al. 2021) and report it responsibly (Dodge et al. 2019). All that is the content of a first course in experimental design and yet is rarely done in ML (Miller 2024). Many other statistical methods apply here that ML has been slow to take up.
1.2 Item response theory
With a modicum more sophistication and we can come to the realization that the test instrument is not the object of interest in its own right i.e. we care not about how the model answers a question except insofar as that reveals a latent propensity for answering such questions in such a way. Naïve benchmarks can measure the question-answering but fail to take the chance to estimate that latent propensity.
We can solve this; Psychometrics uses item response theory, which treats the score as a noisy observation of a latent ability, and treats each question (an item in IRT jargon) as an instrument with properties of its own that can be estimated. The standard two-parameter model (Lord and Novick 1968) gives test-taker \(j\) an ability \(\theta_j\) and item \(i\) a difficulty \(b_i\) and a discrimination \(a_i\),
\[P(\text{$j$ answers $i$ correctly}) = \sigma\big(a_i(\theta_j - b_i)\big),\]
with \(\sigma\) the logistic function. The difficulty is knowing the ability level at which the odds of a right answer are even. The discrimination is how sharply the item separates test-takers just below that level from those just above. Setting every \(a_i = 1\) gives the one-parameter Rasch model (Rasch 1960). Arena leaderboards, which rank models from pairwise human preferences, fit the Bradley-Terry model (Bradley and Terry 1952; Chiang et al. 2024), \(P(j \text{ beats } k) = \sigma(\theta_j - \theta_k)\), which is the Rasch model with a second test-taker’s ability \(\theta_k\) replacing the item’s difficulty.
We can in fact fit all these parameters jointly from the item responses of the models. The fit tells helpful things. It tells us which questions carry no useful information about the models, e.g. when a benchmark is saturated. In the eval setting this can recover a full benchmark score from about a hundred well-chosen questions (Polo et al. 2024). Moreover, it puts an error bar on each model’s ability. It flags broken questions, which stronger models get wrong as often as weaker ones, which is an indicator that the ground-truth is unreliable because the answer key is wrong (Rodriguez et al. 2021). A question that one model gets right far more often than its ability predicts is a candidate for having been in its training data.
2 Reproducibility
Frequently expensive by the standards of computer science.
There are some reproducibility initiatives, notably the Agent Databank.
3 Inspect
A neat software framework from the UK AISI for evaluating LLMs and other AI systems.
Inspect can be used for a broad range of evaluations that measure coding, agentic tasks, reasoning, knowledge, behavior, and multi-modal understanding. Core features of Inspect include:
4 Incoming
nostalgebraeist, models may behave differently in graded episodes (a tirade)
In a 2024 piece, A statistical approach to model evaluations, Anthropic argued for 1920s-style statistics as a baseline. That this was necessary truly says something.
Exploring LLM evaluations and benchmarking | genai-research – Weights & Biases
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While we also have other interests in AI safety, this project is specifically about Understanding the Limitations of AI Oversight. By which we mean both traditional “evals” and various other forms oversight such as monitoring, (most forms of) interpretability, or staged deployment; the unifying theme being that these are observation-based methods of controlling AI as opposed to, for example, safety by design.
Our theory of change has two parts: (1) Contribute to “the science of AI oversight”, making existing evaluations (and other methods) more effective. (2) Build common knowledge of where evaluations don’t work, in order to increase our willingness to invest into alternative approaches.
