Shuffling reality to produce your data

November 26, 2014 — January 27, 2022

estimator distribution
probabilistic algorithms
Figure 1

Resampling your own data to estimate how good your point-estimator is, and to reduce its bias. In general an intuitive technique. However, gets tricky for e.g. dependent data. For a handy crib sheet for bootstrap failure modes, see Thomas Lumley, When the bootstrap doesn’t work.

In the classical mode, this is a frequentist technique without an immediate Bayesian interpretation.

Commonly credited as being invented by B. Efron (1979) and theoretically justified by Gine and Zinn (1990).

1 Teaching

Datacamp bootstrap tutorial.

2 Bootstrap bias correction

As opp variance estimation. NBD; Bootstrap is notionally telling you the sampling distribution. 🏗

3 Bootstrap for dependent data

e.g., as presaged, time series. Parametric bootstrap would be the logical default choice, right? When does that work?

4 Causal bootstrap

Now a thing! (Imbens and Menzel 2021)

5 As a Bayesian method

There is absolutely a Bayesian bootstrap if you think hard enough about it, it turns out. Several, really. Rubin (1981) derived a Bayesian version. See Lyddon, Holmes, and Walker (2019) for a modern update, and Rasmus Bååth for a diagrammed explanation of the points of contact with frequentist bootstrap and some other things.

6 Pedagogic

7 References

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———. 2021. Resampling Plans and the Estimation of Prediction Error.” Stats.
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