Ecological stability

The explosive growth and collapse of May’s paradox

2012-08-30 — 2024-10-06

branching
catastrophe
networks
probability
SDEs
statistics
stochastic processes
time series
virality
Figure 1

May () demonstrated that as the complexity of a system increases—measured by the number of species and the density of their interactions—the likelihood of the system being stable decreases when interactions are assigned randomly.

May’s Paradox: Real ecosystems are both complex and seemingly stable. May’s work challenged the prevailing notion that complexity begets stability. How does nature do it?

Naively, we might say that we only observe stable ecosystems because the unstable ones have already collapsed. We cannot quite make that as an evolutionary argument, though, because selection operates on the individuals within the ecosystem, not the ecosystem as a whole. There are more careful arguments to be made.

I know about this concept mostly because of how often it is referenced in certain financial stability papers. Oh, and I spent a summer in 2001 running ecological simulations for the mathematics program at ANU.

Look! Cosma Shalizi has recently updated his Stability and Complexity of Ecosystems notebook, also.

1 Incoming

2 References

Allesina, and Tang. 2012. Stability Criteria for Complex Ecosystems.” Nature.
Bajić, Rebolleda-Gómez, Muñoz, et al. 2021. The Macroevolutionary Consequences of Niche Construction in Microbial Metabolism.” Frontiers in Microbiology.
Casas. n.d. “Assessing Sampling Sufficiency of Network Metrics Using Bootstrap.”
Doebeli. 2013. Adaptive Dynamics: A Framework for Modeling the Long-Term Evolutionary Dynamics of Quantitative Traits.” In The Adaptive Landscape in Evolutionary Biology.
Heleno, Devoto, and Pocock. 2012. Connectance of Species Interaction Networks and Conservation Value: Is It Any Good to Be Well Connected? Ecological Indicators.
May. 1972. Will a Large Complex System Be Stable? Nature.
McCann. 2000. The Diversity–Stability Debate.” Nature.
Ulanowicz, Goerner, Lietaer, et al. 2009. Quantifying Sustainability: Resilience, Efficiency and the Return of Information Theory.” Ecological Complexity.