I have a nonlinear transformation of a random process. What is its distribution?
Related: What is the gradient of the transform? That is the topic of the reparameterization trick and other MC grad estimators. This is very commonly seen in the context of transforms of Gaussians when it produces results like the delta method and extended Kalman filtering.
Taylor expansion
Not complicated but subtle (Gustafsson and Hendeby 2012).
Consider a general nonlinear differentiable transformation and its second-order Taylor expansion. Consider the mapping applied to a variable defining Let and The Hessian of the component of is denoted is a vector where the th element is . We will approximate using the Taylor expansion, Leaving aside questions of when this is convergent for now. Then the first moment of is given by Further, let , then the second moment of is given by with
This is commonly seen in the context of transforms of Gaussians.
Stein’s lemma
As seen in Stein’s method. Gives us the special case of certain exponential RVs (typically Gaussian) under certain matched transforms. Long story.
Stochastic Itô-Taylor expansion
Taylor expansions for stochastic processes. See stochastic taylor expansion. tl;dr: Usually more trouble than it is worth.
References
Aït-Sahalia, Hansen, and Scheinkman. 2010.
“Operator Methods for Continuous-Time Markov Processes.” In
Handbook of Financial Econometrics: Tools and Techniques.
Easley, and Berry. 2020.
“A Higher Order Unscented Transform.” arXiv:2006.13429 [Cs, Math].
Gustafsson, and Hendeby. 2008.
“On Nonlinear Transformations of Stochastic Variables and Its Application to Nonlinear Filtering.” In
2008 IEEE International Conference on Acoustics, Speech and Signal Processing.
Jacob, and Schilling. 2001.
“Lévy-Type Processes and Pseudodifferential Operators.” In
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Jin, Judd, and Insitution. n.d. “Perturbation Methods for General Dynamic Stochastic Models.”
Kloeden, P. E., and Platen. 1991.
“Stratonovich and Ito Stochastic Taylor Expansions.” Mathematische Nachrichten.
Kloeden, Peter E., and Platen. 1992.
“Stochastic Taylor Expansions.” In
Numerical Solution of Stochastic Differential Equations. Applications of Mathematics.
Kloeden, P. E., Platen, and Wright. 1992.
“The Approximation of Multiple Stochastic Integrals.” Stochastic Analysis and Applications.
Schmitt-Grohe, and Uribe. n.d. “Perturbation Methods for the Numerical Analysis of DSGE Models: Lecture Notes.”
Simic. 2008.
“On a Global Upper Bound for Jensen’s Inequality.” Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications.
Wolter. 2007.
Introduction to Variance Estimation. Statistics for Social and Behavioral Sciences.