How do we manage risks of very bad stuff that are beyond precise statistical quantification? Black swans etc.

Normal accidents at an existential-risk scale. Capitalismβs end game.

This is a mere placeholder, although I should have more, since it was the central concern of the Chair of Entrepreneurial Risksh where I did my MSc under the supervision of Didier Sornette.

## For policy

See science for policy.

## In financial markets

## Prediction via markets

See prediction markets.

## Incoming

Nassim Taleb has a whole career based on handling heavy-tailed risk and managing out-of-sample downsides (Taleb 2007, 2020).

Eliezer Yudkowsky, Mooreβs Law of Mad Science:

Every eighteen months, the minimum IQ necessary to destroy the world drops by one point.

Fun but implausibly simple differential equation models of civilisational implosion.

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