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A grab-bag of links about disease spread in its filthy glory. I am particularly examine COVID-19, from necessity.
[Microbescope by David McCandless, Omid Kashan, Miriam Quick, Karl Webster, Dr Stephanie Starling]
The spread of diseases in populations. A nitty-gritty messy empirical application for those abstract contagion models.
Connection with global trade networks: Cosma Shalizi on Ebola and Mongol Modernity.
Modeling
I used to know a little about agent-based behavioural epidemic simulation, but I am no longer in that field and do not regard myself as a practical expert.
I do know a little more about contagion models
Ameliorations
Contact tracing
Contact tracing is its own miniature study.
References
Andris, Clio Maria, Caglar Koylu, and Mason A. Porter. 2021. “Human-Network Regions as Effective Geographic Units for Disease Mitigation.” SocArXiv.
Baker, Antoine, Indaco Biazzo, Alfredo Braunstein, Giovanni Catania, Luca Dall’Asta, Alessandro Ingrosso, Florent Krzakala, et al. 2021. “Epidemic Mitigation by Statistical Inference from Contact Tracing Data.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118 (32).
Bass, Frank M. 1969. “A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables.” Management Science 15 (5): 215–27.
———. 2004. “Comments on ‘A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables The Bass Model’.” Management Science 50 (12_supplement): 1833–40.
Berkessel, Jana B., Tobias Ebert, Jochen E. Gebauer, Thorsteinn Jonsson, and Shigehiro Oishi. 2022. “Pandemics Initially Spread Among People of Higher (Not Lower) Social Status: Evidence From COVID-19 and the Spanish Flu.” Social Psychological and Personality Science 13 (3): 722–33.
Braunstein, Alfredo, and Alessandro Ingrosso. 2016. “Inference of Causality in Epidemics on Temporal Contact Networks.” Scientific Reports 6 (1): 27538.
Bretherton, R, and Robin I M Dunbar. 2020. “Dunbar’s Number Goes to Church: The Social Brain Hypothesis as a Third Strand in the Study of Church Growth.” Archive for the Psychology of Religion 42 (1): 63–76.
Epstein, Joshua M. 2007. Generative Social Science: Studies in Agent-Based Computational Modeling. Princeton Studies in Complexity. Princeton University Press.
———. 2009. “Modelling to Contain Pandemics.” Nature 460: 687.
Ferguson, Neil M., Derek A. T. Cummings, Christophe Fraser, James C. Cajka, Philip C. Cooley, and Donald S. Burke. 2006. “Strategies for Mitigating an Influenza Pandemic.” Nature 442 (7101): 448–52.
Ferguson, N., D. Laydon, G. Nedjati Gilani, N. Imai, K. Ainslie, M. Baguelin, S. Bhatia, et al. 2020. “Report 9: Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) to Reduce COVID19 Mortality and Healthcare Demand.” Report.
Halloran, M. E., N. M. Ferguson, S. Eubank, I. M. Longini, D. A. T. Cummings, B. Lewis, S. Xu, et al. 2008. “Modeling Targeted Layered Containment of an Influenza Pandemic in the United States.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105 (12): 4639–44.
Hayward, John. 1999. “Mathematical Modeling of Church Growth.” The Journal of Mathematical Sociology 23 (4): 255–92.
———. 2005. “A General Model of Church Growth and Decline.” The Journal of Mathematical Sociology 29 (3): 177–207.
Kimmitt, P.T., and K.F. Redway. 2016. “Evaluation of the Potential for Virus Dispersal During Hand Drying: A Comparison of Three Methods.” Journal of Applied Microbiology 120 (2): 478–86.
Kiss, István Z., Joel Miller, and Péter L. Simon. 2017. Mathematics of Epidemics on Networks: From Exact to Approximate Models. Interdisciplinary Applied Mathematics. New York, NY: Springer International Publishing.
Klinkenberg, Don, Christophe Fraser, and Hans Heesterbeek. 2006. “The Effectiveness of Contact Tracing in Emerging Epidemics.” PLoS ONE 1 (1).
Madar, N., T. Kalisky, R. Cohen, D. ben-Avraham, and S. Havlin. 2004. “Immunization and Epidemic Dynamics in Complex Networks.” The European Physical Journal B 38 (2): 269–76.
Meade, N., and Towhidul Islam. 2006. “Modeling and Forecasting the Diffusion of Innovation - A 25 Year Review.” International Journal of Forecasting 22 (January): 529–45.
Ormerod, Paul, and Greg Wiltshire. 2009. “‘Binge’ Drinking in the UK: A Social Network Phenomenon.” Mind & Society 8 (2): 135–52.
Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo, and Alessandro Vespignani. 2002. “Immunization of Complex Networks.” Physical Review E 65 (3): 036104.
Randall, K., E. T. Ewing, L. C. Marr, J. L. Jimenez, and L. Bourouiba. 2021. “How Did We Get Here: What Are Droplets and Aerosols and How Far Do They Go? A Historical Perspective on the Transmission of Respiratory Infectious Diseases.” Interface Focus 11 (6): 20210049.
Raskar, Ramesh, Isabel Schunemann, Rachel Barbar, Kristen Vilcans, Jim Gray, Praneeth Vepakomma, Suraj Kapa, et al. 2020. “Apps Gone Rogue: Maintaining Personal Privacy in an Epidemic.” arXiv:2003.08567 [Cs], March.
Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla, and Andrew C. Thomas. 2011. “Homophily and Contagion Are Generically Confounded in Observational Social Network Studies.” Sociological Methods & Research 40 (2): 211–39.
Shen, Chen, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, and Yaneer Bar-Yam. 2020. “Review of Ferguson Et Al ‘Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions…’.” New England Complex Systems Institute.
Sinha, Rajiv K., and Murali Chandrashekaran. 1992. “A Split Hazard Model for Analyzing the Diffusion of Innovations.” Journal of Marketing Research 29 (1): 116–27.
St-Onge, Guillaume, Vincent Thibeault, Antoine Allard, Louis J. Dubé, and Laurent Hébert-Dufresne. 2020. “School Closures, Event Cancellations, and the Mesoscopic Localization of Epidemics in Networks with Higher-Order Structure.” arXiv:2003.05924 [Nlin, Physics:physics], March.
Törnberg, Petter. 2018. “Echo Chambers and Viral Misinformation: Modeling Fake News as Complex Contagion.” PLOS ONE 13 (9): e0203958.
Weitz, Joshua S., Stephen J. Beckett, Ashley R. Coenen, David Demory, Marian Dominguez-Mirazo, Jonathan Dushoff, Chung-Yin Leung, et al. 2020. “Modeling shield immunity to reduce COVID-19 epidemic spread.” Nature Medicine 26 (6): 849–54.
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