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A grab-bag of links about disease spread in its filthy glory. I am particularly examine COVID-19, from necessity.
[Microbescope by David McCandless, Omid Kashan, Miriam Quick, Karl Webster, Dr Stephanie Starling]
The spread of diseases in populations. A nitty-gritty messy empirical application for those abstract contagion models.
Connection with global trade networks: Cosma Shalizi on Ebola and Mongol Modernity.
Modeling
I used to know a little about agent-based behavioural epidemic simulation, but I am no longer in that field and do not regard myself as a practical expert.
I do know a little more about contagion models
Ameliorations
Contact tracing
Contact tracing is its own miniature study.
References
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Baker, Antoine, Indaco Biazzo, Alfredo Braunstein, Giovanni Catania, Luca DallβAsta, Alessandro Ingrosso, Florent Krzakala, et al. 2021. βEpidemic Mitigation by Statistical Inference from Contact Tracing Data.β Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118 (32).
Bass, Frank M. 1969. βA New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables.β Management Science 15 (5): 215β27.
βββ. 2004. βComments on βA New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables The Bass Modelβ.β Management Science 50 (12_supplement): 1833β40.
Berkessel, Jana B., Tobias Ebert, Jochen E. Gebauer, Thorsteinn Jonsson, and Shigehiro Oishi. 2022. βPandemics Initially Spread Among People of Higher (Not Lower) Social Status: Evidence From COVID-19 and the Spanish Flu.β Social Psychological and Personality Science 13 (3): 722β33.
Braunstein, Alfredo, and Alessandro Ingrosso. 2016. βInference of Causality in Epidemics on Temporal Contact Networks.β Scientific Reports 6 (1): 27538.
Bretherton, R, and Robin I M Dunbar. 2020. βDunbarβs Number Goes to Church: The Social Brain Hypothesis as a Third Strand in the Study of Church Growth.β Archive for the Psychology of Religion 42 (1): 63β76.
Epstein, Joshua M. 2007. Generative Social Science: Studies in Agent-Based Computational Modeling. Princeton Studies in Complexity. Princeton University Press.
βββ. 2009. βModelling to Contain Pandemics.β Nature 460: 687.
Ferguson, Neil M., Derek A. T. Cummings, Christophe Fraser, James C. Cajka, Philip C. Cooley, and Donald S. Burke. 2006. βStrategies for Mitigating an Influenza Pandemic.β Nature 442 (7101): 448β52.
Ferguson, N., D. Laydon, G. Nedjati Gilani, N. Imai, K. Ainslie, M. Baguelin, S. Bhatia, et al. 2020. βReport 9: Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) to Reduce COVID19 Mortality and Healthcare Demand.β Report.
Halloran, M. E., N. M. Ferguson, S. Eubank, I. M. Longini, D. A. T. Cummings, B. Lewis, S. Xu, et al. 2008. βModeling Targeted Layered Containment of an Influenza Pandemic in the United States.β Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105 (12): 4639β44.
Hayward, John. 1999. βMathematical Modeling of Church Growth.β The Journal of Mathematical Sociology 23 (4): 255β92.
βββ. 2005. βA General Model of Church Growth and Decline.β The Journal of Mathematical Sociology 29 (3): 177β207.
Kimmitt, P.T., and K.F. Redway. 2016. βEvaluation of the Potential for Virus Dispersal During Hand Drying: A Comparison of Three Methods.β Journal of Applied Microbiology 120 (2): 478β86.
Kiss, IstvΓ‘n Z., Joel Miller, and PΓ©ter L. Simon. 2017. Mathematics of Epidemics on Networks: From Exact to Approximate Models. Interdisciplinary Applied Mathematics. New York, NY: Springer International Publishing.
Klinkenberg, Don, Christophe Fraser, and Hans Heesterbeek. 2006. βThe Effectiveness of Contact Tracing in Emerging Epidemics.β PLoS ONE 1 (1).
Madar, N., T. Kalisky, R. Cohen, D. ben-Avraham, and S. Havlin. 2004. βImmunization and Epidemic Dynamics in Complex Networks.β The European Physical Journal B 38 (2): 269β76.
Meade, N., and Towhidul Islam. 2006. βModeling and Forecasting the Diffusion of Innovation - A 25 Year Review.β International Journal of Forecasting 22 (January): 529β45.
Ormerod, Paul, and Greg Wiltshire. 2009. ββBingeβ Drinking in the UK: A Social Network Phenomenon.β Mind & Society 8 (2): 135β52.
Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo, and Alessandro Vespignani. 2002. βImmunization of Complex Networks.β Physical Review E 65 (3): 036104.
Randall, K., E. T. Ewing, L. C. Marr, J. L. Jimenez, and L. Bourouiba. 2021. βHow Did We Get Here: What Are Droplets and Aerosols and How Far Do They Go? A Historical Perspective on the Transmission of Respiratory Infectious Diseases.β Interface Focus 11 (6): 20210049.
Raskar, Ramesh, Isabel Schunemann, Rachel Barbar, Kristen Vilcans, Jim Gray, Praneeth Vepakomma, Suraj Kapa, et al. 2020. βApps Gone Rogue: Maintaining Personal Privacy in an Epidemic.β arXiv:2003.08567 [Cs], March.
Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla, and Andrew C. Thomas. 2011. βHomophily and Contagion Are Generically Confounded in Observational Social Network Studies.β Sociological Methods & Research 40 (2): 211β39.
Shen, Chen, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, and Yaneer Bar-Yam. 2020. βReview of Ferguson Et Al βImpact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventionsβ¦β.β New England Complex Systems Institute.
Sinha, Rajiv K., and Murali Chandrashekaran. 1992. βA Split Hazard Model for Analyzing the Diffusion of Innovations.β Journal of Marketing Research 29 (1): 116β27.
St-Onge, Guillaume, Vincent Thibeault, Antoine Allard, Louis J. DubΓ©, and Laurent HΓ©bert-Dufresne. 2020. βSchool Closures, Event Cancellations, and the Mesoscopic Localization of Epidemics in Networks with Higher-Order Structure.β arXiv:2003.05924 [Nlin, Physics:physics], March.
TΓΆrnberg, Petter. 2018. βEcho Chambers and Viral Misinformation: Modeling Fake News as Complex Contagion.β PLOS ONE 13 (9): e0203958.
Weitz, Joshua S., Stephen J. Beckett, Ashley R. Coenen, David Demory, Marian Dominguez-Mirazo, Jonathan Dushoff, Chung-Yin Leung, et al. 2020. βModeling shield immunity to reduce COVID-19 epidemic spread.β Nature Medicine 26 (6): 849β54.
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