COVID-19 in practice

My other epidemiological case study



Epidemiology of

See also epidemiology, contact tracing.

Long covid

Seems to be real, dammit (Blomberg et al. 2021). Well then, how bad is it? How much risk of it should I tolerate. Elizabeth Aceso argues Long Covid Is Not Necessarily Your Biggest Problem, i.e. that it is a real problem but does not loom particularly large amongst in all the other real problems. Scott Alexander that it looms reasonably large.

Ameliorating

All I have for now is a microlife COVID risk calculator.

I like it a lot, but check the dates and specificity of the data for your region, and bear in mind that it is just an estimator, and written by non-epidemiologists.

Vitamin D

Wow, why is the Vitamin D literature so spammy?

tl;dr; AFAICT the case that Vitamin D is helpful is OKish, and the case that it is not hurtful is strong so why not take heaps of Vitamin D?

References

Blomberg, Bjørn, Kristin Greve-Isdahl Mohn, Karl Albert Brokstad, Fan Zhou, Dagrun Waag Linchausen, Bent-Are Hansen, Sarah Lartey, et al. 2021. “Long COVID in a Prospective Cohort of Home-Isolated Patients.” Nature Medicine, June, 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-021-01433-3.
Brenner, Hermann. 2021. “Vitamin D Supplementation to Prevent COVID-19 Infections and Deaths—Accumulating Evidence from Epidemiological and Intervention Studies Calls for Immediate Action.” Nutrients 13 (2): 411. https://doi.org/10.3390/nu13020411.
Chang, Sheryl L., Nathan Harding, Cameron Zachreson, Oliver M. Cliff, and Mikhail Prokopenko. 2020. “Modelling Transmission and Control of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Australia.” Nature Communications 11 (1): 5710. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19393-6.
Entrenas Castillo, Marta, Luis Manuel Entrenas Costa, José Manuel Vaquero Barrios, Juan Francisco Alcalá Díaz, José López Miranda, Roger Bouillon, and José Manuel Quesada Gomez. 2020. ‘Effect of Calcifediol Treatment and Best Available Therapy Versus Best Available Therapy on Intensive Care Unit Admission and Mortality Among Patients Hospitalized for COVID-19: A Pilot Randomized Clinical Study’.” The Journal of Steroid Biochemistry and Molecular Biology 203 (October): 105751. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsbmb.2020.105751.
Herbrich, Ralf, Rajeev Rastogi, and Roland Vollgraf. 2020. “CRISP: A Probabilistic Model for Individual-Level COVID-19 Infection Risk Estimation Based on Contact Data,” June. https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.04942v1.
Murai, Igor H., Alan L. Fernandes, Lucas P. Sales, Ana J. Pinto, Karla F. Goessler, Camila S. C. Duran, Carla B. R. Silva, et al. 2020. “Effect of Vitamin D3 Supplementation Vs Placebo on Hospital Length of Stay in Patients with Severe COVID-19: A Multicenter, Double-Blind, Randomized Controlled Trial.” medRxiv, November, 2020.11.16.20232397. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.16.20232397.
———, et al. 2021. “Effect of a Single High Dose of Vitamin D 3 on Hospital Length of Stay in Patients With Moderate to Severe COVID-19: A Randomized Clinical Trial.” JAMA 325 (11): 1053. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.26848.
Stapelberg, Nicolas J. C., Nicolas R. Smoll, Marcus Randall, Dinesh Palipana, Bryan Bui, Kristine Macartney, Gulam Khandaker, and Andre Wattiaux. 2021. “A Discrete-Event, Simulated Social Agent-Based Network Transmission (DESSABNeT) Model for Communicable Diseases: Method and Validation Using SARS-CoV-2 Data in Three Large Australian Cities.” PLOS ONE 16 (5): e0251737. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0251737.
University Hospital, Angers. 2021. “COvid-19 and Vitamin D Supplementation: A Multicenter Randomized Controlled Trial of High Dose Versus Standard Dose Vitamin D3 in High-Risk COVID-19 Patients (CoVitTrial).” Clinical trial registration NCT04344041. clinicaltrials.gov. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04344041.
Xie, Gang. 2020. “A Novel Monte Carlo Simulation Procedure for Modelling COVID-19 Spread over Time.” Scientific Reports 10 (1): 13120. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-70091-1.
Zhao, Hongwei, Naveed N. Merchant, Alyssa McNulty, Tiffany A. Radcliff, Murray J. Cote, Rebecca S. B. Fischer, Huiyan Sang, and Marcia G. Ory. 2021. “COVID-19: Short Term Prediction Model Using Daily Incidence Data.” PLOS ONE 16 (4): e0250110. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0250110.

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