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A grab-bag of links about disease spread in its filthy glory. I am particularly examine COVID-19, from necessity.

[Microbescope by David McCandless, Omid Kashan, Miriam Quick, Karl Webster, Dr Stephanie Starling]

The spread of diseases in populations. A nitty-gritty messy empirical application for those abstract contagion models.

Connection with global trade networks: Cosma Shalizi on Ebola and Mongol Modernity.


I used to know a little about agent-based behavioural epidemic simulation, but I am no longer in that field and do not regard myself as a practical expert.

I do know a little more about contagion models


Contact tracing

Contact tracing is its own miniature study.


Andris, Clio Maria, Caglar Koylu, and Mason A. Porter. 2021. β€œHuman-Network Regions as Effective Geographic Units for Disease Mitigation.” SocArXiv.
Baker, Antoine, Indaco Biazzo, Alfredo Braunstein, Giovanni Catania, Luca Dall’Asta, Alessandro Ingrosso, Florent Krzakala, et al. 2021. β€œEpidemic Mitigation by Statistical Inference from Contact Tracing Data.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118 (32).
Bass, Frank M. 1969. β€œA New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables.” Management Science 15 (5): 215–27.
β€”β€”β€”. 2004. β€œComments on β€˜A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables The Bass Model’.” Management Science 50 (12_supplement): 1833–40.
Berkessel, Jana B., Tobias Ebert, Jochen E. Gebauer, Thorsteinn Jonsson, and Shigehiro Oishi. 2022. β€œPandemics Initially Spread Among People of Higher (Not Lower) Social Status: Evidence From COVID-19 and the Spanish Flu.” Social Psychological and Personality Science 13 (3): 722–33.
Braunstein, Alfredo, and Alessandro Ingrosso. 2016. β€œInference of Causality in Epidemics on Temporal Contact Networks.” Scientific Reports 6 (1): 27538.
Bretherton, R, and Robin I M Dunbar. 2020. β€œDunbar’s Number Goes to Church: The Social Brain Hypothesis as a Third Strand in the Study of Church Growth.” Archive for the Psychology of Religion 42 (1): 63–76.
Epstein, Joshua M. 2007. Generative Social Science: Studies in Agent-Based Computational Modeling. Princeton Studies in Complexity. Princeton University Press.
β€”β€”β€”. 2009. β€œModelling to Contain Pandemics.” Nature 460: 687.
Ferguson, Neil M., Derek A. T. Cummings, Christophe Fraser, James C. Cajka, Philip C. Cooley, and Donald S. Burke. 2006. β€œStrategies for Mitigating an Influenza Pandemic.” Nature 442 (7101): 448–52.
Ferguson, N., D. Laydon, G. Nedjati Gilani, N. Imai, K. Ainslie, M. Baguelin, S. Bhatia, et al. 2020. β€œReport 9: Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) to Reduce COVID19 Mortality and Healthcare Demand.” Report.
Halloran, M. E., N. M. Ferguson, S. Eubank, I. M. Longini, D. A. T. Cummings, B. Lewis, S. Xu, et al. 2008. β€œModeling Targeted Layered Containment of an Influenza Pandemic in the United States.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105 (12): 4639–44.
Hayward, John. 1999. β€œMathematical Modeling of Church Growth.” The Journal of Mathematical Sociology 23 (4): 255–92.
β€”β€”β€”. 2005. β€œA General Model of Church Growth and Decline.” The Journal of Mathematical Sociology 29 (3): 177–207.
Kimmitt, P.T., and K.F. Redway. 2016. β€œEvaluation of the Potential for Virus Dispersal During Hand Drying: A Comparison of Three Methods.” Journal of Applied Microbiology 120 (2): 478–86.
Kiss, IstvΓ‘n Z., Joel Miller, and PΓ©ter L. Simon. 2017. Mathematics of Epidemics on Networks: From Exact to Approximate Models. Interdisciplinary Applied Mathematics. New York, NY: Springer International Publishing.
Klinkenberg, Don, Christophe Fraser, and Hans Heesterbeek. 2006. β€œThe Effectiveness of Contact Tracing in Emerging Epidemics.” PLoS ONE 1 (1).
Madar, N., T. Kalisky, R. Cohen, D. ben-Avraham, and S. Havlin. 2004. β€œImmunization and Epidemic Dynamics in Complex Networks.” The European Physical Journal B 38 (2): 269–76.
Meade, N., and Towhidul Islam. 2006. β€œModeling and Forecasting the Diffusion of Innovation - A 25 Year Review.” International Journal of Forecasting 22 (January): 529–45.
Ormerod, Paul, and Greg Wiltshire. 2009. β€œβ€˜Binge’ Drinking in the UK: A Social Network Phenomenon.” Mind & Society 8 (2): 135–52.
Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo, and Alessandro Vespignani. 2002. β€œImmunization of Complex Networks.” Physical Review E 65 (3): 036104.
Randall, K., E. T. Ewing, L. C. Marr, J. L. Jimenez, and L. Bourouiba. 2021. β€œHow Did We Get Here: What Are Droplets and Aerosols and How Far Do They Go? A Historical Perspective on the Transmission of Respiratory Infectious Diseases.” Interface Focus 11 (6): 20210049.
Raskar, Ramesh, Isabel Schunemann, Rachel Barbar, Kristen Vilcans, Jim Gray, Praneeth Vepakomma, Suraj Kapa, et al. 2020. β€œApps Gone Rogue: Maintaining Personal Privacy in an Epidemic.” arXiv:2003.08567 [Cs], March.
Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla, and Andrew C. Thomas. 2011. β€œHomophily and Contagion Are Generically Confounded in Observational Social Network Studies.” Sociological Methods & Research 40 (2): 211–39.
Shen, Chen, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, and Yaneer Bar-Yam. 2020. β€œReview of Ferguson Et Al β€˜Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions…’.” New England Complex Systems Institute.
Sinha, Rajiv K., and Murali Chandrashekaran. 1992. β€œA Split Hazard Model for Analyzing the Diffusion of Innovations.” Journal of Marketing Research 29 (1): 116–27.
St-Onge, Guillaume, Vincent Thibeault, Antoine Allard, Louis J. DubΓ©, and Laurent HΓ©bert-Dufresne. 2020. β€œSchool Closures, Event Cancellations, and the Mesoscopic Localization of Epidemics in Networks with Higher-Order Structure.” arXiv:2003.05924 [Nlin, Physics:physics], March.
TΓΆrnberg, Petter. 2018. β€œEcho Chambers and Viral Misinformation: Modeling Fake News as Complex Contagion.” PLOS ONE 13 (9): e0203958.
Weitz, Joshua S., Stephen J. Beckett, Ashley R. Coenen, David Demory, Marian Dominguez-Mirazo, Jonathan Dushoff, Chung-Yin Leung, et al. 2020. β€œModeling shield immunity to reduce COVID-19 epidemic spread.” Nature Medicine 26 (6): 849–54.

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