Buy this from sam.

A grab-bag of links about disease spread in its messy glory.

Microbescope by David McCandless, Omid Kashan, Miriam Quick, Karl Webster, Dr Stephanie Starling

The spread of diseases in populations. A nitty-gritty messy empirical application for those abstract contagion models.

Connection with global trade networks: Cosma Shalizi on Ebola and Mongol Modernity.


I used to know a little about agent-based epidemic simulation, but I am no longer in that field and do not regard myself as a practical expert.

It would be interesting to look at the famous Imperial College model.

Monitoring it

Contact tracing

contact tracing is its own miniature industry.

Epstein, Joshua M. 2007. Generative Social Science: Studies in Agent-Based Computational Modeling. Princeton Studies in Complexity. Princeton University Press.

———. 2009. “Modelling to Contain Pandemics.” Nature 460: 687. https://doi.org/10.1038/460687a.

Ferguson, Neil M., Derek A. T. Cummings, Christophe Fraser, James C. Cajka, Philip C. Cooley, and Donald S. Burke. 2006. “Strategies for Mitigating an Influenza Pandemic.” Nature 442 (7101, 7101): 448–52. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04795.

Ferguson, N., D. Laydon, G. Nedjati Gilani, N. Imai, K. Ainslie, M. Baguelin, S. Bhatia, et al. 2020. “Report 9: Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) to Reduce COVID19 Mortality and Healthcare Demand.” Report. https://doi.org/10.25561/77482.

Halloran, M. E., N. M. Ferguson, S. Eubank, I. M. Longini, D. A. T. Cummings, B. Lewis, S. Xu, et al. 2008. “Modeling Targeted Layered Containment of an Influenza Pandemic in the United States.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105 (12): 4639–44. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0706849105.

Kiss, István Z., Joel Miller, and Péter L. Simon. 2017. Mathematics of Epidemics on Networks: From Exact to Approximate Models. Interdisciplinary Applied Mathematics. New York, NY: Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-50806-1.

Klinkenberg, Don, Christophe Fraser, and Hans Heesterbeek. 2006. “The Effectiveness of Contact Tracing in Emerging Epidemics.” PLoS ONE 1 (1). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0000012.

Madar, N., T. Kalisky, R. Cohen, D. ben-Avraham, and S. Havlin. 2004. “Immunization and Epidemic Dynamics in Complex Networks.” The European Physical Journal B 38 (2): 269–76. https://doi.org/10.1140/epjb/e2004-00119-8.

Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo, and Alessandro Vespignani. 2002. “Immunization of Complex Networks.” Physical Review E 65 (3): 036104. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.65.036104.

Raskar, Ramesh, Isabel Schunemann, Rachel Barbar, Kristen Vilcans, Jim Gray, Praneeth Vepakomma, Suraj Kapa, et al. 2020. “Apps Gone Rogue: Maintaining Personal Privacy in an Epidemic,” March. http://arxiv.org/abs/2003.08567.

Shen, Chen, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, and Yaneer Bar-Yam. 2020. “Review of Ferguson et Al ‘Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions...’.” New England Complex Systems Institute. https://necsi.edu/review-of-ferguson-et-al-impact-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions.

St-Onge, Guillaume, Vincent Thibeault, Antoine Allard, Louis J. Dubé, and Laurent Hébert-Dufresne. 2020. “School Closures, Event Cancellations, and the Mesoscopic Localization of Epidemics in Networks with Higher-Order Structure,” March. http://arxiv.org/abs/2003.05924.