A grab-bag of links about disease spread in its messy glory.
The spread of diseases in populations. A nitty-gritty messy empirical application for those abstract contagion models.
Connection with global trade networks: Cosma Shalizi on Ebola and Mongol Modernity.
I used to know a little about agent-based epidemic simulation, but I am no longer in that field and do not regard myself as a practical expert.
It would be interesting to look at the famous Imperial College model.
contact tracing is its own miniature industry.
Epstein, Joshua M. 2007. Generative Social Science: Studies in Agent-Based Computational Modeling. Princeton Studies in Complexity. Princeton University Press.
———. 2009. “Modelling to Contain Pandemics.” Nature 460: 687. https://doi.org/10.1038/460687a.
Ferguson, Neil M., Derek A. T. Cummings, Christophe Fraser, James C. Cajka, Philip C. Cooley, and Donald S. Burke. 2006. “Strategies for Mitigating an Influenza Pandemic.” Nature 442 (7101, 7101): 448–52. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04795.
Ferguson, N., D. Laydon, G. Nedjati Gilani, N. Imai, K. Ainslie, M. Baguelin, S. Bhatia, et al. 2020. “Report 9: Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) to Reduce COVID19 Mortality and Healthcare Demand.” Report. https://doi.org/10.25561/77482.
Halloran, M. E., N. M. Ferguson, S. Eubank, I. M. Longini, D. A. T. Cummings, B. Lewis, S. Xu, et al. 2008. “Modeling Targeted Layered Containment of an Influenza Pandemic in the United States.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105 (12): 4639–44. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0706849105.
Kiss, István Z., Joel Miller, and Péter L. Simon. 2017. Mathematics of Epidemics on Networks: From Exact to Approximate Models. Interdisciplinary Applied Mathematics. New York, NY: Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-50806-1.
Madar, N., T. Kalisky, R. Cohen, D. ben-Avraham, and S. Havlin. 2004. “Immunization and Epidemic Dynamics in Complex Networks.” The European Physical Journal B 38 (2): 269–76. https://doi.org/10.1140/epjb/e2004-00119-8.
Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo, and Alessandro Vespignani. 2002. “Immunization of Complex Networks.” Physical Review E 65 (3): 036104. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.65.036104.
Raskar, Ramesh, Isabel Schunemann, Rachel Barbar, Kristen Vilcans, Jim Gray, Praneeth Vepakomma, Suraj Kapa, et al. 2020. “Apps Gone Rogue: Maintaining Personal Privacy in an Epidemic,” March. http://arxiv.org/abs/2003.08567.
Shen, Chen, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, and Yaneer Bar-Yam. 2020. “Review of Ferguson et Al ‘Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions...’.” New England Complex Systems Institute. https://necsi.edu/review-of-ferguson-et-al-impact-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions.
St-Onge, Guillaume, Vincent Thibeault, Antoine Allard, Louis J. Dubé, and Laurent Hébert-Dufresne. 2020. “School Closures, Event Cancellations, and the Mesoscopic Localization of Epidemics in Networks with Higher-Order Structure,” March. http://arxiv.org/abs/2003.05924.