Epidemics
2020-03-10 — 2020-04-03
Wherein attention is directed to the mechanics of disease spread, with particular examination of COVID‑19 and its ties to global trade networks, and empirical contagion models are considered.
branching
count data
drugs
health
life
networks
SDEs
social graph
statistics
stochastic processes
time series
A grab-bag of links about disease spread in its filthy glory. I am particularly examining COVID-19, out of necessity.
The spread of diseases in populations. A nitty-gritty messy empirical application for those abstract contagion models.
Connection with global trade networks: Cosma Shalizi on Ebola and Mongol Modernity.
1 Modelling
I used to know a little about agent-based behavioural epidemic simulation, but I am no longer in that field and do not regard myself as a practical expert.
I do know a little more about contagion models.
2 Ameliorations
2.1 Contact tracing
Contact tracing is its own miniature study.
3 References
Andris, Koylu, and Porter. 2021. “Human-Network Regions as Effective Geographic Units for Disease Mitigation.”
Baker, Biazzo, Braunstein, et al. 2021. “Epidemic Mitigation by Statistical Inference from Contact Tracing Data.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Barratt, and Aston. 2025. “A Nonparametric and Functional Wombling Methodology.”
Bass. 1969. “A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables.” Management Science.
———. 2004. “Comments on ‘A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables The Bass Model’.” Management Science.
Berkessel, Ebert, Gebauer, et al. 2022. “Pandemics Initially Spread Among People of Higher (Not Lower) Social Status: Evidence From COVID-19 and the Spanish Flu.” Social Psychological and Personality Science.
Braunstein, and Ingrosso. 2016. “Inference of Causality in Epidemics on Temporal Contact Networks.” Scientific Reports.
Bretherton, and Dunbar. 2020. “Dunbar’s Number Goes to Church: The Social Brain Hypothesis as a Third Strand in the Study of Church Growth.” Archive for the Psychology of Religion.
Epstein. 2007. Generative Social Science: Studies in Agent-Based Computational Modeling. Princeton Studies in Complexity.
———. 2009. “Modelling to Contain Pandemics.” Nature.
Ferguson, Neil M., Cummings, Fraser, et al. 2006. “Strategies for Mitigating an Influenza Pandemic.” Nature.
Ferguson, N., Laydon, Nedjati Gilani, et al. 2020. “Report 9: Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) to Reduce COVID19 Mortality and Healthcare Demand.” Report.
Halloran, Ferguson, Eubank, et al. 2008. “Modeling Targeted Layered Containment of an Influenza Pandemic in the United States.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Hayward. 1999. “Mathematical Modeling of Church Growth.” The Journal of Mathematical Sociology.
———. 2005. “A General Model of Church Growth and Decline.” The Journal of Mathematical Sociology.
Kimmitt, and Redway. 2016. “Evaluation of the Potential for Virus Dispersal During Hand Drying: A Comparison of Three Methods.” Journal of Applied Microbiology.
Kiss, Miller, and Simon. 2017. Mathematics of Epidemics on Networks: From Exact to Approximate Models. Interdisciplinary Applied Mathematics.
Klinkenberg, Fraser, and Heesterbeek. 2006. “The Effectiveness of Contact Tracing in Emerging Epidemics.” PLoS ONE.
Madar, Kalisky, Cohen, et al. 2004. “Immunization and Epidemic Dynamics in Complex Networks.” The European Physical Journal B.
Meade, and Islam. 2006. “Modeling and Forecasting the Diffusion of Innovation - A 25 Year Review.” International Journal of Forecasting.
Ormerod, and Wiltshire. 2009. “‘Binge’ Drinking in the UK: A Social Network Phenomenon.” Mind & Society.
Pastor-Satorras, and Vespignani. 2002. “Immunization of Complex Networks.” Physical Review E.
Randall, Ewing, Marr, et al. 2021. “How Did We Get Here: What Are Droplets and Aerosols and How Far Do They Go? A Historical Perspective on the Transmission of Respiratory Infectious Diseases.” Interface Focus.
Raskar, Schunemann, Barbar, et al. 2020. “Apps Gone Rogue: Maintaining Personal Privacy in an Epidemic.” arXiv:2003.08567 [Cs].
Shalizi, and Thomas. 2011. “Homophily and Contagion Are Generically Confounded in Observational Social Network Studies.” Sociological Methods & Research.
Shen, Taleb, and Bar-Yam. 2020. “Review of Ferguson Et Al ‘Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions…’.”
Sinha, and Chandrashekaran. 1992. “A Split Hazard Model for Analyzing the Diffusion of Innovations.” Journal of Marketing Research.
St-Onge, Thibeault, Allard, et al. 2020. “School Closures, Event Cancellations, and the Mesoscopic Localization of Epidemics in Networks with Higher-Order Structure.” arXiv:2003.05924 [Nlin, Physics:physics].
Törnberg. 2018. “Echo Chambers and Viral Misinformation: Modeling Fake News as Complex Contagion.” PLOS ONE.
Weitz, Beckett, Coenen, et al. 2020. “Modeling shield immunity to reduce COVID-19 epidemic spread.” Nature Medicine.