Climate crisis

The conspiracy of those malign incumbent powers, the laws of physics, against the plucky underdog, coal megacorporations


Dealing with it, predicting it etc.

1200 years of Kyoto cherry blossom records Source: The Economist

Tail risk

Tim Harford summarizes Weitzman (M. Weitzman 2007; Weitzman 2011; Martin L Weitzman 2007):

It is only when we ponder the tail risk that we realise how dangerous climate change might be. Local air pollution isn’t going to wipe out the human race. Climate change probably won’t, either. But it might. When we buy insurance, it isn’t because we expect the worst, but because we recognise that the worst might happen.

Regional effects

Australia: How the climate crisis will affect you.

A more detailed but older one here.

Fixing climate change

  • Paul Hawken et al, Drawdown:

    Project Drawdown is the most comprehensive plan ever proposed to reverse global warming. Our organization did not make or devise the plan—we found the plan because it already exists. We gathered a qualified and diverse group of researchers from around the world to identify, research, and model the 100 most substantive, existing solutions to address climate change. What was uncovered is a path forward that can roll back global warming within thirty years. It shows that humanity has the means at hand. Nothing new needs to be invented.

    Most interesting index Solution summary by rank, which is one of the better uses cost rankings of this stuff. If their figures are accurate, this is a good pinup for effective altruism.

Mitigating, capitalising upon

Chicago’s Future of water

“We’re going to be like the Saudi Arabia of freshwater. This is one of the best places in the world to live out global warming.”

Robert Pollin, De-growth vs a green new deal

it is in fact absolutely imperative that some categories of economic activity should now grow massively—those associated with the production and distribution of clean energy. Concurrently, the global fossil-fuel industry needs to contract massively—that is, to ‘de-grow’ relentlessly over the next forty or fifty years until it has virtually shut down. In my view, addressing these matters in terms of their specifics is more constructive in addressing climate change than presenting broad generalities about the nature of economic growth, positive or negative.

Jeff Colgan, Jessica F. Green, Thomas Hale Asset Revaluation and the Existential Politics of Climate Change:

While scholars have typically modeled climate change as a global collective action challenge, we offer a dynamic theory of climate politics based on the present and future revaluation of assets. Climate politics can be understood as a contest between owners of assets that accelerate climate change, such as fossil fuel plants, and owners of assets vulnerable to climate change, like coastal property. To date, obstruction by “climate-forcing” asset holders has been a large barrier to effective climate policy. But as climate change and decarbonization policies proceed, holders of both climate-forcing and “climate-vulnerable” assets stand to lose some or even all of the value of their assets over time, and with them, the basis of their political power. This dynamic contest between opposing interests is likely to intensify in many sites of political contestation, from the subnational to transnational levels. As it does so, climate politics will become increasingly existential, potentially reshaping political alignments within and across countries. Such shifts may further undermine the LIO: as countries develop pro-climate policies at different speeds and magnitudes, they will have incentives to diverge from existing arrangements over trade and economic integration.

Carbon offsets

  • 15 Trees does Australian community tree planting.
  • Gold standard is often regarded as a best practice carbon offsetter.

Bathtub Dynamics

Mental models of climate change and their difficulties for our ape brains. 🏗

Visualising it

Ackerman, Frank, Stephen J DeCanio, Richard Howarth, and Kristen Sheeran. 2009. “Limitations of Integrated Assessment Models of Climate Change.” Climatic Change 95: 297–315.

Aono, Yasuyuki, and Keiko Kazui. 2008. “Phenological Data Series of Cherry Tree Flowering in Kyoto, Japan, and Its Application to Reconstruction of Springtime Temperatures Since the 9th Century.” International Journal of Climatology 28 (7): 905–14. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1594.

Colgan, Jeff, Jessica F. Green, and Thomas Hale. 2020. “Asset Revaluation and the Existential Politics of Climate Change.” SSRN Scholarly Paper ID 3634572. Rochester, NY: Social Science Research Network. https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3634572.

DeCanio, Stephen J. 2003. Economic Models of Climate Change: A Critique. Palgrave Macmillan.

Geyer, Charles J. n.d. “Markov Chain Monte Carlo Lecture Notes,” 125.

Hsiang, Solomon M., Kyle C. Meng, and Mark A. Cane. 2011. “Civil Conflicts Are Associated with the Global Climate.” Nature 476 (7361): 438–41. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10311.

Keen, Steve. 2020. “The Appallingly Bad Neoclassical Economics of Climate Change.” Globalizations 0 (0): 1–29. https://doi.org/10.1080/14747731.2020.1807856.

Laitner, John A, Stephen J DeCanio, and Irene Peters. 2000. “Incorporating Behavioural, Social, and Organizational Phenomena in the Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation Options.” In Society, Behaviour, and Climate Change Mitigation, 1–64. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Oreskes, Naomi, and Erik M. Conway. 2010. Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming. 1 edition. New York: Bloomsbury Press.

Ou-Yang, Chieh, Howard Kunreuther, and Erwann Michel-Kerjan. 2013. “An Economic Analysis of Climate Adaptations to Hurricane Risk in St. Lucia.” The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice 38 (3): 521–46. https://doi.org/10.1057/gpp.2013.18.

Pielke, Roger, Gwyn Prins, Steve Rayner, and Daniel Sarewitz. 2007. “Climate Change 2007: Lifting the Taboo on Adaptation.” Nature 445: 597–98. https://doi.org/10.1038/445597a.

Pollin, Robert. 2018. “De-Growth Vs a Green New Deal.” New Left Review, II,, no. 112: 5–25.

Proust, Katrina M, Stephen R Dovers, Barney Foran, Barry Newell, Will Steffen, and Patrick Troy. 2007. “Climate, Energy and Water Accounting for the Links.” Canberra: Land & Water Australia.

Rolnick, David, Priya L. Donti, Lynn H. Kaack, Kelly Kochanski, Alexandre Lacoste, Kris Sankaran, Andrew Slavin Ross, et al. 2019. “Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning,” November. http://arxiv.org/abs/1906.05433.

Schiermeier, Quirin. 2018. “Droughts, Heatwaves and Floods: How to Tell When Climate Change Is to Blame.” News. Nature. July 30, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-018-05849-9.

Schlenker, Wolfram, and Charles Taylor. 2019a. “The Market Is Betting on Climate Change.” VoxEU.org. May 2, 2019. https://voxeu.org/article/market-betting-climate-change.

Schlenker, Wolfram, and Charles A Taylor. 2019b. “Market Expectations About Climate Change.” Working Paper 25554. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w25554.

Sterman, John D. 2011. “Communicating Climate Change Risks in a Skeptical World.” Climatic Change 108 (4): 811–26. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0189-3.

Sterman, John D, and Linda B Sweeney. 2002. “Cloudy Skies: Assessing Public Understanding of Global Warming.” System Dynamics Review 18: 207–40.

Sterman, John D., and Linda Booth Sweeney. 2007. “Understanding Public Complacency About Climate Change: Adults’ Mental Models of Climate Change Violate Conservation of Matter.” Climatic Change 80 (3-4): 213–38. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9107-5.

Thiébaux, H. J., and F. W. Zwiers. 1984. “The Interpretation and Estimation of Effective Sample Size.” Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 23 (5): 800–811. http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1984JApMe..23..800T.

Weitzman, Martin. 2007. “Structural Uncertainty and the Value of Statistical Life in the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change.” Working Paper 13490. National Bureau of Economic Research. http://www.nber.org/papers/w13490.

Weitzman, Martin L. 2011. “Fat-Tailed Uncertainty in the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change.” Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 5 (2): 275–92. https://doi.org/10.1093/reep/rer006.

Weitzman, Martin L. 2007. “A Review of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change.” Journal of Economic Literature, 22. https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/weitzman/files/review_of_stern_review_jel.45.3.pdf.